Beginning ARR
$12,840,000
As of Jul 01, 2026
Where the Forecast Lives
Compass
Where the forecast lives.
The forecast isn't a number someone typed into a slide. It's a composition — renewal base, pipeline-weighted new business, expected churn, expansion assumptions, timing adjustments. Compass builds the forecast from those layers, traces every dollar to a contract, and explains what moved when something changes.
Compass · Q3 2026 ForecastBase Case
Forecast ARR
$17,528,200
Period close · Sep 30, 2026
Renewal BaseActive contracts approaching term+$4,218,000
Pipeline-WeightedNew + expansion, weighted by stage+$412,600
Expected ChurnConfirmed + flagged renewals−$128,400
ExpansionLayered on active contracts+$186,000
Forecast ARR$17,528,200
Last updated May 17, 20263 assumption changes this week
The Problem
The forecast is a spreadsheet that nobody fully trusts — including the person who built it.
Most SaaS forecasts are assembled manually. Someone pulls pipeline from the CRM, renewal expectations from a tracker, churn estimates from memory, and expansion guesses from conversation. They merge it in a spreadsheet, adjust the numbers until they feel right, and present it as a plan. A week later, something moves, and the whole process starts over.
The problem isn't the math. The problem is that the forecast has no architecture. No traceable inputs. No versioned assumptions. No way to explain what changed or why. It's a number that exists because someone decided it should — not because a system constructed it from evidence.
Until the forecast has a system behind it.
Forecast Construction
Built from layers, not guesses.
Compass constructs the forecast from discrete, traceable layers: renewal base ARR from active contracts approaching term, pipeline-weighted ARR from Current, confirmed and expected churn, and expansion assumptions. Each layer connects back to specific contracts.
The total is a composition, not an assertion — and every component is independently auditable.
Compass · period build-upQ3 2026 · base case
Renewal Base ARR9 renewals due · all auto-renew or confirmed$4,218,000
Pipeline-Weighted14 opps · weighted by stage probability+$412,600
Expected Churn1 confirmed · 2 flagged at-risk−$128,400
Expansion3 active customers · seat & product expansion+$186,000
Period Forecast$4,688,200
42 contracts14 pipeline9 renewals due
Scenario Modeling
Adjust assumptions. See the forecast move.
Operators don't just read the forecast — they shape it. Compass lets you adjust timing assumptions, probability overrides, risk posture, and renewal confidence. Change a close date from June to August and watch the period forecast recalculate. Flag a renewal as at-risk and see the churn estimate adjust.
Every scenario is grounded in the same contract data — the assumptions change, not the evidence.
ScenarioBase Case
Pipeline-Weighted$412,600
Renewal Base$4,218,000
Expected Churn−$128,400
Total$4,502,200
ScenarioConservative
Pipeline-Weighted$284,200−$128,400
Renewal Base$4,218,000unchanged
Expected Churn−$256,800−$128,400
Total$4,245,400−$256,800
2 assumptions changed· 3 contracts affected · Threnody & Coole flagged · Larkin & Hollow timing shifted to Q4
Variance Analysis
What moved. Why it moved. Which contracts changed.
When the forecast changes, Compass doesn't just show the new number — it explains the movement. Variance analysis breaks down the delta between any two points in time: which contracts were added, which churned, which changed amounts, which shifted timing, which moved stages.
The CFO never has to reconstruct the story manually. The system preserves it.
Compass · variance · May 10 → May 17, 2026Δ 7 days
Prior ForecastSnapshot · May 10, 2026$4,688,200
New Pipeline2 opps added · weighted by stage+$94,200
Churn1 renewal confirmed lost−$128,400
Timing Shift1 opp slipped Q3 → Q4−$67,200
Expansion1 active customer · seat expansion+$42,000
Current Forecast$4,628,800
Net Change−$59,400
ContractsThrenody & Coolechurned·Halberd & Quinnslipped to Q4·Sefton & Argyleexpanded
A forecast should be a system, not a ritual. Every number should trace to a contract. Every change should be explainable.
Compass reads from Contracts and Current. It feeds Portolan for historical snapshots and Beacon for interrogation.
40.7128° N · 74.0060° W — COMPASS BEARING